美3月CPI爆表

　　昨(11日)文已预期美3月CPI爆表，果如是，预期是基于美通胀有3个主要推手：

　　1. 油价，特别是油站汽油价；

　　2. 屋租；

　　3. 就业和工资。

　　昨文只谈油价，这是显而易见的，只要细观察便知（图一），图一是有下文的。油站油价资料是至4月，升速远抛离3月所报的通胀数据。到报4月通胀数据时，会将这个抛离补回来，即是4月通胀(在5月公布)，在这项目是会升的。

美通胀升出乎预料

　　3月美通胀爆升，还有个更深层意义，因为这个通胀是月比、年比都升（图二），是出乎市场预料。为什么这次超出预料是重要？彭博的经济师Anna Wong有这评语：

　　“March is a month where the CPI enters a seasonal window that's favorable for disinflation. The fact that core CPI remained the same in March as February-even if it maps to about 0.3% in core PCE inflation terms - is not a good development. This report more than February's is likely to feed Fed concern that progress on disinflation is stalling-even though the core print for the two months was the same。”

　　简言之是：3月是季节性上有利通胀回下，但当通胀应跌而不跌，可能反映通胀已止跌。

　　彭博的息率策略家Ira Jersey则谓：

　　“The 3-month annualized core CPI climbing to 4.5% is going to keep early Fed-cut calls muted coming up. 50 bps of cuts in 2024 currently being priced may not occur until later in the year. The yield curve flattening isn't surprising as we continue to price out early and deep cuts。”

　　“The timing of 2024 rate-cut expectations are front of mind for market participants with linear markets pricing just below even odds of a first cut in July. Still the stickiness of 'supercore' inflation now north of 8% on a 3-month annualized basis may continue to put upward pressure on expectations of the Fed's terminal floor。”

　　“A retest of 4.51% is nearly assured with the higher-than-expected CPI. If that doesn't hold 4.7% is the next stopping spot for the 10-year yield。”

　　简译过来是一句：息升啦！

　　她更指出(警告？)10年美债息会见4.51%，如仍不止于此水平，便会上见4.71%。4.51%和4.71%的10年债息是什么样水平？看图三。

　　10年债息高企，会启示什么？以后谈，今时只讲一句，投资要谨慎，准备息升！

　　图四是美通胀N年来统计下来的历史走势，于3月22日《鲍鹰变鲍鸽》一文及昨日《美CPI回升？》文刊出过。此图值得各位剪存，并将以后的美通胀数据补上，看历史会否重复，可及时布置好自己的资产。

　　投资涉风险，每位投资者承受风险程度不一，务必要独立思考。笔者会因应市况而买卖。

　　《经济通》所刊的署名及／或不署名文章，相关内容属作者个人意见，并不代表《经济通》立场，《经济通》所扮演的角色是提供一个自由言论平台。